Final pre-season changes

So you’ve looked at all the important teams. You’ve even looked at the unimportant teams. You’ve memorised all the rules perfectly and have a game plan. Time to tweak the final starting line-up.

Now, you’ll be aware already that your league either has a substitute bench or not. Telegraph.co.uk doesn’t whereas premierleague.com does. This is quite an important thing to consider in advance of the match day – unless you think that Man City v Tottenham or Arsenal v Liverpool is a foregone conclusion. With a difficult first day fixture, consider relegating any defenders from that team to the bench.

If you get a lot of transfers, then make sure you have money free. Some players are like-for-like with different price tags. If you have Everton’s Baines on the team, consider switching to Jagielka for up to 1.5M extra. Depending on how many goals you expect Baines to score, they’ll be getting similar points. Looking at Ivanovic? Consider Ferreira, at least until Bosingwa can play consistently. If you have money spare, you can work out who the best players will be this season and then snatch them up no matter which player you’re replacing.

And remember the circumstances of each team, for it could be the deciding factor. If their rival for the first-team spot is injured, how long are they out for? If there is a rumour of a transfer, is the team that they’re going to likely to give them similar points? What support have they got from midfield? How good is the rest of their defence? Will they actually play? Well, I’m going to have a quick glance down the main teams and see who is likely to be a consistent member of the top 8…

Arsenal

Almunia is likely to start the first match but there are rumours of a replacement coming in. Vermaelen, Koscielny, Sagna and Clichy is the anticipated defensive line-up and should stay like that unless affected by injuries or a poor player. Fabregas, Arshavin, Van Persie and Chamakh will definitely play so that leaves Nasri and Diaby likely to complete the set most weeks. with a few other good players including Walcott and Rosicky rotating depending on formation. Djourou is very cheap but looks unlikely to get many games, unless placed in a holding midfielder role.

Aston Villa

Friedel will start the first match – but there are rumours of a trade-out-trade-in with Almunia becoming Villa’s #1. Warnock-Collins-Cuellar-Dunne will start the majority of the season but Cuellar could be out until September and Collins will miss at least the first match. Ashley Young is still hanging about and James Milner hasn’t yet fully let go. Petrov, Downing and probably Reo-Coker will be looking to start whether Young stays or leaves. Carew and Agbonlahor will start when they’re fit.

Chelsea

Cech will start as soon as he is ready, but could still miss Chelsea’s opener. Ferreira-Ivanovic-Terry-Cole could be replaced by Bosingwa-Alex-Terry-Cole once the injuries have cleared but it’s not yet set in stone. Essien, Lampard, Malouda, Mikel and Benayoun will fill the midfield with Kalou, Drogba and Anelka up front. Despite Benayoun being a summer transfer, he may well not start most matches, and Kalou could be a replacement for Drogba and Anelka if injuries are sustained.

Everton

Howard will probably start and stay at Everton (but who knows?) whilst Jagielka, Baines, Distin and Heitinga/Hibbert will make up the defence. Arteta, Cahill and Pienaar will start with Fellaini, Osman, Bilyaletdinov and Neville competing for the other places. Saha will play alone up front, probably, with Yakubu either leaving for West Ham or sitting on the bench.

Liverpool

Reina will probably start for Liverpool despite Middlesbrough’s Jones coming in. Johnson-Carragher-Skrtel will make up the bulk of defence with Insua and Aurelio the lead men of several others. Gerrard and Cole will definitely start whilst Mascherano, Aquilani, Kuyt, Lucas, Babel, Riera and others may play. Jovanovic will start the first match, especially if Torres is injured, though the latter is likely to be fit enough to play some of the opening match and most of the season.

Manchester City

Hart is my favourite to play but many still think Given will. They’re cheap if you are able to pick out the right one, though. New left-back signing Kolarov will probably play with Zabaleta/Richards on the right. Centre will see incoming Boateng fight against Toure and Lescott. Gareth Barry, Yaya Toure, David Silva and new signing Balotelli likely to complete the line-up. Milner will probably join whilst Ireland will probably leave, Vieira and Wright-Phillips staying to fill gaps. Adebayor and Tevez will play with Bellamy likely to leave and Santa Cruz hoping that he’ll play, wherever he ends up.

Manchester United

Van Der Sar will play. Vidic and Evans will play until Ferdinand replaces the latter. Evra will play when the French spectacle doesn’t tear him away (physically or psychologically) and O’Shea will probably finish the line-up, despite players such as Rafael, Neville etc. willing to start. Valencia and Nani will start on the wings with Park happy to replace either, Fletcher and Carrick slightly favourable in the long-term than Scholes or Giggs but I wouldn’t bet against the latter pair making a decent number of appearances. Rooney will start with Hernandez, Berbatov, Owen and Bébé completing their attacking options.

Tottenham Hotspur

Gomes will probably stay number one, Corluka-Hutton-Dawson playing alongside Assou-Ekotto in defence, Bassong and Bale happy to replace any of them. Lennon, Palacios, Modric and Kranjcar will probably fancy themselves with Huddlestone, Bentley, Jenas, Bale and others happy to play and Ashley Young a possible addition. Defoe will start up front with Crouch, Pavlyuchenko and Keane ready for action, though all three have been linked with other clubs.

Zhirkov and Djourou are cheap, but in the same position (as many others) – unlikely to start but more likely to join a defensive midfield than defence. The fact that both are listed as defenders in various fantasy football teams adds to their values, though not significantly. Chamakh, Hernandez, Jovanovic and others are also in similar positions to each other – if they play on a par with their strike partners, they will start almost every match. If they don’t, they’ll suffer. And whilst people can look up youtube videos to anticipate their level of talent, the tale of Andriy Shevchenko must stay in our minds. Whilst at Dinamo Kyiv and Milan, he had an average of over a goal per two games. Once at Chelsea, he didn’t even score one in five – and at Milan after that he score none in eighteen matches. Since he returned to Kiev, he has been scoring one every two matches again. Different players have different styles of play and before seeing them play even one competitive match, it can be difficult to anticipate their entire season. So good luck with the final few hours!

Fantasy Football – Man City, Tottenham and Aston Villa

Everything changes with O’Neill’s exit. Not because of the impact of the resignation itself but because of the circumstances that led to it and the indications as to what might be coming for Villa et al.

Firstly, a brief word on that. Rumours throughout the internet suggest that the two key reasons that the successful Aston Villa manager left were the inevitable sales of James Milner and Ashley Young. It is looking ever more likely that Milner will head to Manchester City and Ashley Young will head to Tottenham Hotspur. If that’s not enough, in terms of transfer rumours, it has been reported here that the new Villa boss will be asked to get rid of a number of players including Luke Young, Sidwell, shorey, Reo-Coker et al. And the new manager (hinting, again, as to why Martin O’Neill left), is not allowed to spend any of the money. And, allegedly, Friedel is also heading for the door.

Alongside the demise of Aston Villa’s reputation in the UK, this situation makes some changes to fantasy footballers’ thoughts. If A Young and Milner leave before Saturday, the other midfielders (Downing, Petrov etc) will be worth more than their listed values. Though they won’t get as many goals, no doubt (and thus Carew/Agbonlahor may be worth less) the transfers will guarantee the pair a place in the starting line-up.

And, added to that, the movement of the two star players will dramatically affect the teams that they arrive at. Man City already has an abundance of midfielders, as does Tottenham, and this will make it even more difficult to predict a line-up. Nonetheless, here I go.

Tottenham

GK: Gomes will play. He’s the second most chosen goalkeeper on the Telegraph and the most selected on Premierleague.com and it’s because of the combination of playing for a team that will keep clean sheets, being a goalkeeper that will play every match and, to be honest, being cheaper than Cech and Van der Sar. Since you’re probably interested, Reina is the goalkeeper that sits top on the Telegraph.

DEF: A number of great defenders, Hutton, Dawson, Corluka, Assou-Ekotto, Bale, King, Bassong, Naughton, Walker, Kaboul etc. Dawson and Corluka will play every match that’s given to them. Though others disagree, I think that Hutton and Assou-Ekotto could play with them. Gareth Bale will probably play in midfield, where he does an excellent job. For that reason, he is (and I don’t think I’m overstating) literally the most valuable defender in fantasy football. If your game thinks that he’s a defender, put him on. He will get goals. He will get assists. He will still get the clean sheet bonuses that Tottenham pick up (and there’ll be a few). He’s the top choice on two fantasy football games that I have seen and he could well be the top defensive scorer of the year.

MID: Though that does mean that there’s a place missing in midfield. Lennon and Jenas are still fighting (and Lennon is still winning) for the right wing slot. Bale generally takes the left and that means that Bentley, Parrett, O’Hara, Rose, Sandro, Modric, Taarabt, Palacios, Huddlestone and Kranjcar are fighting for central midfielder. So I’m probably not exaggerating when I suggest that Ashley Young’s addition would make it a bit awkward. Again, my guess isn’t necessarily right, but I would personally place Kranjcar and Young in the two slots. It may also mean that Bale does in fact play in defence with Modric taking a midfield place.

ST: Defoe is the fourth most chosen attacker and the fifth/third/sixth most expensive. He’ll play and score frequently and deserves those rankings. He’s not the biggest bargain (though premierleague.com undervalue him) but he’ll be consistent. The other three main attackers, Crouch, Pavlyuchenko and Keane, are going to be seeking that other place. In reality, there will not be one player who consistently fills the slot. A number of Tottenham fans have noted that Keane is a bargain, and I would agree – he is cheaper than the others in every version of FF. On the other hand, I wouldn’t suggest getting any of them (see Rule 2), and would instead suggest looking to another major team.

Manchester City

GK: The first really tough battle. Both Hart and Given are first rate goalkeepers. Given is the 4th most selected and has a low price tag. Hart has an even lower price tag – so if one starts every match, they’re possibly the best bargain for a goalkeeper in the league. And, with Arsenal really pushing to sign Given by the end of the transfer window, it could well be a possibility. This would present a dilemma, though: Hart would be extremely cheap but the cheap Given would now be playing for Arsenal. Either would be worth it – but if Given doesn’t go, it may be a pointless dead-end. And, of course, the transfer window closes after the season starts, so the judgement has to be made in advance. Here’s my suggestion: if Given moves before Saturday, buy one of the two; if Given doesn’t, don’t.

DEF: Apparently some guy called Kolarov has signed. I haven’t seen him in action, to the best of my memory, but he’s causing a stir at Man City and will probably play. Lescott, as always, will dominate any team sheet he sits on and Toure will probably join him. Kolarov, being a left-back, will be backed up by Wayne Bridge and the latter will make it hard for him. Zabaleta and Richards will fight for the right-back position with Boateng also fighting Toure and Lescott in central defence. Since I’m biased against Zabaleta (for no real reason, except maybe price), I would place Richards-Toure-Lescott-Kolarov as the likely line-up, though there are great back-up players for any of those positions.

MID: With many key attackers able to play in midfield, or up front, we’ll assume that three midfielders will start. Ireland, Barry, Silva, Vieira, Wright-Philips and the new Toure are all excellent selections. Toure has been making a stir of the last month and will probably start. He’s earning £200,000 per week and won man-of-the-match this weekend, so he’s a good shout. Barry has been sitting comfortably and knocking in a few goals so will probably make the midfield too. Silva is likely to start ahead of Ireland, Vieira or SWP, but there is (as mentioned previously) one big problem. James Milner is likely to join. He’s not a superhero, of course, but he is likely to start most matches, relegating another midfielder. Ireland is likely to leave if Milner arrives, though, and it’s worth noting that point. Looking at FF prices, I would suggest that Toure is a bargain and Barry might be worth it but that the others are too expensive considering the inherent risk.

ST: Adebayor, Tevez, Bellamy and Santa Cruz. Four players that could easily be the number one attacker of a team like Man City. The likelihood is that Adebayor and Tevez will play most matches, if the former stays. Bellamy is desperate to go, especially with the knowledge that he may well be sitting on the bench or playing in midfield. Santa Cruz, despite his excellence, will struggle to get matches this year and unfortunately deserves his low price. He has been linked to Tottenham but I don’t think that he’ll be heading there when City has the money to dictate destination and wants to beat Spurs this year. The same is true of Micah Richards, who has been linked with Redknapp’s team. But if Adebayor or Bellamy go, values will again be affected. As things stand, none of them are worth their bloated price tags, except possibly Adebayor (though he won’t if he moves to a worse team). If Adebayor goes to Juventus, though, you’ll be wasting your money – and we can’t know until the end of the transfer window for sure. If he does go, buy Bellamy.

Aston Villa

GK: With the news that Friedel may be leaving, there could be problems for Villa. Their back-up goalkeeper is very cheap but isn’t up to the job. If Arsenal get Given, Almunia may be able to replace Friedel but otherwise I can’t see the latter persuading his owners to let him leave. As things stand, though, it’s too shaky to give a firm answer on.

DEF: Luke Young, Cuellar, Warnock, Collins and Dunne are the five key players (with Young the extraneous one of those four), though Clark, Davies, Beye, Shorey etc. are good enough to join that defence at any given time. Any starting player is worth their cost, assuming that there is a solid goalkeeper behind them. If not, they’re virtually worthless. So it’s up to you.

MID: Ashley Young could be leaving. James Milner could be leaving. Stephen Ireland could be coming in. Downing and Petrov, then, are the only two certainties and both are cheaper than they should be. Players like Sidwell, Reo-Coker, Albrighton, etc will fill gaps moreso than claim a specific position but with extremely low costs, they would be worth adding if they started to play. Reo-Coker is half the value of Young and Milner on one site and would bring the cost of the squad down significantly.

ST: Carew and Agbonlahor are favourites, as always. They’re not cheap, but with Carew at a similar cost to Crouch, I’d consider him. Agbonlahor is much cheaper than Tevez, too, and would be worth it if he had a good midfield behind him. If there’s no Milner or Young, there might be no quality feeding the attackers goals – on the other hand, Downing and Petrov may be turned into the perfect providers, giving the strikers goals that would usually be poached by midfield. It’s hard to say, and another of the unavoidably risky decisions.

Ultimately, the three teams could field five strong teams between them, with some of the most selected players in fantasy football at affordable prices. We’ll probably see one of them make a Champions League place, too, but it’s hard to say what the teams will look like by the end of the season. Anyway, it’s late, so if you’ll excuse me I’m off to research Kolarov on youtube.

Fantasy Football – Chelsea v Man Utd

The Community Shield match was an important one for Fantasy Football fanatics. With Chelsea and Manchester United the two top teams with the best season start, fixture wise (and quality wise), people were eager to see what teams would be selected and I was most definitely one of them.

Chelsea’s team, I half-predicted yesterday, had some surprises, not least by resting World Cup star Drogba. Nonetheless, Hilario started with the absence of Cech (ok, I said Turnbull, but they’re both poor FF choices), Ferreira-Terry-Ivanovic-Cole was indeed the back line, as predicted, and Lampard, Essien, Mikel and Malouda started, as also predicted. Kalou played with them (as oposed to Benayoun) and Anelka played centrally on his own.

This lines us up pretty well for the season. As Drogba played 30 minutes, we’ll see him in the early matches – and the rest of the team was pretty much as I anticipated. Taking a look at three fantasy football games (Telegraph, Metro and Premierleague) I have underlined the bargains. Ferreira is the obvious starting point, significantly under-cost compared to the other back four. As most of the points will come from starts and clean sheets, he will score similarly to his team mates as long as he continues to play alongside them. There are a number of people after that place but if he holds them off, he’s worth a lot more than he costs. Mikel  is cheaper than the other midfielders and looks likely to play – Essien joins him in being cheap on the Telegraph. Kalou and Malouda, on Premierleague, are both midfielders (with Malouda a mid on both of the other games) so they’re possibly worth putting money on, having played in a much more attacking position in the Community Shield. To sum-up, Ferreira and Mikel are definitely worth having if they play matches and if Anelka/Drogba gets injured then Malouda or Kalou could be worth adding to the list.

As for Manchester United. Had I predicted their team sheet last night, I would have picked a similar squad to that positioned, with a few exceptions. Obviously starting Owen over Hernandez or Berbatov was a pre-season flutter by Sir Alex and I would have placed Nani over Park Ji-Sung. With Evra away, Fabio is the obvious replacement as with Evans and Ferdinand. And the other key difference was this – two days ago, Carrick was missing weeks of football. And he started for Man Utd. I’m not really sure how he did it, but credit to him! Anyway, doing it properly, here’s my thought on the team.

GK: Van Der Sar will start almost every match with Kuszczak taking over if there is a high density or an injury. Van Der Sar, in this respect, could be worth more than the other goalkeepers at the top end – Liverpool and Arsenal might both be selling or buying goalkeepers (and have an awkward first match against each other) whilst Chelsea’s first choice ‘keeper is currently injured and is only just about ready to return at the start of the season. Van Der Sar will play and Man Utd have a good run.

DEF: O’Shea-Vidic-Ferdinand-Evra is preferred, though Evans is likely to step in for Ferdinand until September. Fabio could possibly play instead of Evra if the latter struggles with the ongoing FFF disciplinary, either physically or psychologically, and O’Shea could be replaced by Neville or Rafael without much notice. Wes Brown could also push into a defensive spot if necessary and Smalling is going to be eager to play matches too. If you’re in a many-transfer game, Evans could be worth putting on for the first month (as he’s a bargain), but he’s not going to get longer than that. O’Shea is the right-wing preference – but will, of course, depend on price.

MID: Valencia-Scholes-Carrick-Park was the line-up today. Scholes and Park will be interchangeable with Nani, Giggs and Fletcher, I think, whilst Carrick and Valencia will start most matches. Nani, of course, could step in for Valencia and (unlike last season) the latter is at a normal price. The other midfielders are unlikely to get more than a start or two.

ST: Rooney, Berbatov and Hernandez will all want to start every game. The end result, usually, is that it will depend on form though Rooney has a tendency to start when he’s playing badly nonetheless. Both Berbatov and Hernandez scored (though Hernandez scored with his face) so they’ll be looking to continue playing. Owen and the others are going to be waiting for an injury to get a place.

Man Utd bargains, therefore, look to be Evans and O’Shea, should they stay there more permanently, Park Ji-Sung, Carrick and Scholes. They’re all risky moves – but the ones who aren’t risky cost at least what they deserve. On all three games I looked at, the attackers are a little overpriced considering that they won’t play all minutes of all matches.

Chelsea and Liverpool

Which players are going to make it onto the squads of these two excellent teams this season? I’ve been looking at their options and recent matches to consider.

Chelsea

GK: Not a convincing choice for the first week with Cech possibly ruled out by injury and with Hilario and Turnbull  playing equally well in pre-season. Indications are that Turnbull will be starting but Cech’s return to football will be timed about right to cause us some problems. After the first week of football, Cech will play for whatever matches he’s fit for. It’s a difficult selection choice; I initially put him on my team but have reconsidered due to the possibility of returning injury and missing the first match.

DEF: The starting line-up seems much more consistent in defence than in goals, with Ferreira-Terry-Ivanovic-Cole the likely back four. However, with players like Alex, Carvalho, Bosingwa and Zhirkov ready to regularly challenge those places later in the season (with Bruma, Mancienne and van Aanholt hoping to step in), it isn’t necessarily set in stone. And if they don’t have a consistent goalkeeper behind them, their clean sheet bonuses could be through the window – so bear that in mind.

MID: Depending on your fantasy football game (and which match you pick in real life) you’ll find some discrepancies between playing positions. Zhirkov played, in only the last two matches, in both midfield and defence. Kalou and Malouda have flitted between midfield and attack. Depending on your fantasy football provider, midfielders could score more points per goal than attackers – so keep your eye out for bonuses. If Zhirkov regularly starts, and sits in defence on your provider, he might be worth a punt. In one game, Malouda sits in midfield and Kalou up front – judging by previous matches, the two are often interchangeable and simply by picking the midfielder there’s a chance of a couple of extra points. On the other hand, there are some excellent alternatives for Chelsea. Lampard is definitely going to start and J.O. Mikel and Essien could complete the set with Benayoun hoping to get a decent number of starts. My gut feeling is that Kalou won’t start ahead of Anelka, Drogba and Benayoun but that’s probably because I don’t think he’s as good as the others. And, as always, Sinclair, Matic, McEachran and others are going to push hard for a chance in the first team.

ST: Drogba and Anelka are both, as always, expensive but solid choices, though will continue to miss occasional matches to some of the midfield choices (either as attackers or with the other half a lone striker) and in competition with Kakuta, Sturridge, Di Santo and even Borini for the two highly-revered places. If they make it through to the Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup, there’s a good chance that the pair will miss a few games to rest between high-frequency matches.

Liverpool

GK: Riera and Cavalieri have both started with Middlesbrough’s Brad Jones on the cards. Riera is, allegedly, going to see a £23M bid from Arsenal pry him away from his new 6-year contract and that will make a difference to the values of all three players, and indeed Arsenal’s pair. I would usually doubt that Riera could be pried but, well, £23M is more than he’s worth at the moment and would be hard to turn down when they bought him for only £6 million.

DEF: As with Chelsea, I am able to predict the back four as Johnson, Carragher, Skrtel and Insua. Again, however, there are some good players pushing for those same positions – from right to left, Degen, Agger, Kyrgiakos, Ayala, Kelly, Aurelio and Wilson will challenge. Aurelio, Wilson and Agger could get a few matches but it would be a risky gamble to put any on a fantasy football team without seeing them play a few consecutive matches.

MID: Gerrard and Cole will form the core of Liverpool’s midfield with a large number, again, of consistent midfielders looking at the other places. Aquilani, Rodriguez, Kuyt, Jovanovic, Riera, Mascherano, Lucas and Babel will push for places in the team, whether midfield or further forward, and Aquilani-Jovanovic will probably make up the other two places.

ST: On the other hand, Jovanovic could play up front alongside Torres. Babel or Kuyt could also fill the second attacker place – or Torres will play alone up front as he has done on many previous occasions. What’s certain is that Torres will play every match that he’s able to and that Liverpool are still lacking a good back-up or strike partner. They’re still looking, however, and the transfer window is still open. Depending on who they sign, and what their price is, a bargain might be on the cards.

Manchester United will be the next team up for analysis – and with both age and youth filtering through, with a shaky team still looking to win the Premiership, it’s going to be a difficult selection to predict. But whilst Liverpool play Arsenal in the opening week, both Chelsea and Man Utd have a good run – so hold that thought whilst choosing your teams.

Dead Balls and Arsenal

This blog post comes in two halves: dead balls and Arsenal.

As promised in my previous post, here is a brief discussion of the importance of dead balls.

Take a random attacking midfielder. His cost is fairly high but he’s a reasonable amount cheaper than Lampard. But here’s an important question: who takes the dead balls?

Let’s look up some statistics. 58 of 260 goals that Alan Shearer scored were penalties. He scored 45 for Newcastle in 405 games – so we can assume that there are five games per scored penalty. David Beckham has scored around 45 goals from direct free kicks in 600 matches, so we can assume that one free kick gives a goal in every 15 matches. He has also gained around 1 one assist per 9 matches.  Figo got 29 assists from corners in 657 matches in 15 years, so we can assume that a corner provides an assist every 22 matches. Over the course of a season, someone who takes every dead ball for his team would get 6 assists and 11 goals more than his team-mates. That’s a lot of points.

In reality, of course, being on the receiving end of corners and free kicks can also provide goals and the maths isn’t perfect. But in terms of penalties, at least, it is vital. Someone who takes penalties all the time gets more goals. And goals means points, in fantasy football – over the course of a season, it makes a big difference and indeed could be the difference between a few places in a league. And if a player is a team’s main free kick or corner taker, he’s more likely to start the match and will, in general, provide you with more points.

And as for Arsenal: I am, over the next week, going to be looking at all of the Premier League teams in a bid to work out which players are definitely strong, which are risky and which won’t be starting. Beginning with the “power four” of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United – and in this post, the first of those four. I have been looking over recent match data, formations and more, and hopefully can provide some clues as to who is valuable.

GK: Almunia and Fabianski have started a match each of the last two. We know who will start the first choice goalkeeper, of course, but it does suggest that neither of the goalkeepers would be worth putting on a fantasy football, for reasons that Rule #2 provides.

DEF: In the last couple of matches, Vermaelen, Koscielny and Djourou have rotated in central defence. Vermaelen and Koscielny are very likely to start the vast majority of matches, in my opinion, and their selection would probably depend on price. I’ve seen Koscielny priced both unnecessarily high and low on fantasy football games this year, so make your own decision on that one. On the wings, my suggestion is that there are going to be first choice selections for Sagna and Clichy – but again, with Eboue and Gibbs just behind them (and with others not too far behind) a fairly high price tag is probably too much.

MID: Fabregas announced that he’s staying at Arsenal and, as with previous transfer windows, I’d expect him to stick with that. He’s bound to get a ton of points, but has had a tendency to miss a few matches and with a possible fitness concern for the start of season, and a risk of transfer, he might not be worth the massive price tag as things stand. Arshavin, on the other hand, is a guaranteed point-scorer, though again has a large price tag. Apart from those two, I would be wary – Rosicky, Denilson, Diaby, Nasri and Walcott are all good midfield options and with Frimpong, Wilshere and Emmanuel-Thomas having played in recent matches there is great risk in any Arsenal midfield selection.

ST: The same is true of attacking options. Van Persie and Chamakh are both players who will make most starts, but Vela and Bendtner have been selected for matches ahead of RVP before and it could easily happen again. As always, it completely depends on price. If Fabregas, RVP, Vermaelen, Koscielny or Arshavin are cheap options, snap them up. If Walcott, Sagna or Clichy are very cheap, it might be worth adding them to your list. And if I had to pick a super-cheap option, I would suggest that Djourou might get a couple of matches – but with Rule #2 looming over me, I would suggest that it’s better safe than sorry.

A Brief Word of Caution: The Transfer Window

It’s the World Cup 1966 and you’ve got enough money to buy Pele, who was the star player of 1958 and 1962. Should you go for it? Of course you should: the fact that he was injured and Brazil then lost the World Cup, England going on to win, isn’t something that you could know in advance. Four years later, you might be skeptical, but you could put on Pele… and Brazil would win the World Cup.

You might be surprised, though, to see that he hasn’t scored as many points as you’d expect. But he’s the central attacker of the winning team! He’s the best player in the world! Doesn’t matter: the top scorer of the competition for Brazil was Jairzinho. Pele only got four goals and Rivelino got 3. Indeed Pele only scored in three of their six matches and probably would have only been man of the match in one of them.

Why am I starting a 2010 England Premiership fantasy football blog with that? Because it’s a good example that you can’t draw any weird conclusions from (unless you try) – but time for a modern example, to make the point. Look at Liverpool. Fernando Torres is sitting in front of goal on his own. To a lesser extent, Rooney and Van Persie are the main attackers for their teams, too. If they were cheaper, they’d be definite bargains – they will start every match and get goals for their teams. But, as you may have guessed from the title of this post, it’s currently the middle of the Transfer Window.

Looking at today’s Rumour Mill, we can look at Arsenal, Man Utd and Liverpool for some help. Liverpool have already got Dirk Kuyt and Steven Gerrard and have signed Joe Cole and Milan Jovanovic. They’re, apparently, looking at Alexander Hleb, Christian Poulsen, Mathieu Flamini and Loic Remy. Plus Torres may be injured for the first match, or he may not. Arsenal have Chamakh, Bendtner, Arshavin and Walcott and are looking at signing Sebastian Giovinco, Mikel Arteta and Mesut Ozil whilst Fabregas still might be leaving for Barcelona. Manchester United are allegedly seeking to purchase Piotr Trochowski, Lassana Diarra and have also been linked with Mesut Ozil. They also have Berbatov, Hernandez, Valencia and Nani, whilst, on the other hand, Michael Owen may well be leaving Man Utd (whether on loan or permanently).

Each of these, whether a realistic possibility or a ridiculous falsehood, changes the value of the player (see Rule #5). Every player named is an attacking midfielder or an attacker, which means that they will have a share of the goals scored. If Berbatov and Hernandez are on top form, Rooney may not play every match. Or he might play behind them. If Liverpool sign Remy, Torres won’t be playing alone up front. And, worse than that, we won’t know until after the season has started.

So that’s my brief word of caution. You may look at the team and think that Van Persie is the only decent attacker but there’s a reason that Chamakh has been brought in. And with Arshavin and Fabregas there as well, he won’t necessarily be taking the free kicks and corners that give bonus goals and assists [the topic of my next post] – indeed he may not play in the position that you expect, especially if someone like Ozil is brought in.

Though, here’s another brief word of caution: some of the transfer rumours are extremely stupid.

Or should it be “czar”?

It’s under a fortnight until the English football (and fantasy football) season “kicks off” again. And with that in mind, I’m starting my new blog. I will go through each team to analyse strengths and weaknesses, look at incoming and outgoing transfers to see how they might change the team dynamics and attempt to predict the minds of a wide variety of managers when difficult selection choices are to be made. I will fail at times, but I will do the research that you don’t have to and try to present a balanced option when I’m not convinced by something.

I am not the only fantasy football “tsar” (or should it be “csar”?) on the internet, and indeed chose the name because I couldn’t find another blog with that title, so feel free to shop around and see others think. The more opinions you seek, the more educated your guesses will be.

So, quickly, I will make a small first post. And it’s going to be on the topic of “the rules”.

Rule #1: Learn the rules. Countless times during my time in fantasy football I have seen someone (including myself) make the simple mistake of getting the rules wrong. Whether you expect a penalty shoot-out to provide points (and it doesn’t), whether you expect the League Cup not to contribute (and it does) or whether you expect to make two transfers to week (and you get ten for the season), you can lose the entire year’s battle with one foolish mistake. Each fantasy football competition will have different rules – so make sure you learn yours!

Rule #2: Better safe than sorry. If you have a choice out of two players, pick the safer option. So, if you’re torn between two expensive players, one of whom is the sole attacker and is on a consistent form and the other of whom is competing with others for a place in the team, is injury prone but could score a lot of goals, pick the former. Whether you have lots of transfers or few, not having to make a transfer is a bonus. Likewise, if you are torn between a cheaper player and a more expensive player, but both are likely to perform similarly, choose the cheap player. If you have money spare, you can pull a brilliant up-market transfer out of the bag when it’s needed – and if you don’t have money spare, you’re stuck with like-for-like transfers. And the third part of the rule is this – if you’re torn between making a transfer and not making one, don’t make it. You’ll have more transfers and will then get into the habit of looking more long-term when making other decisions. This rule also applies to a number of other situations, including team formation, but you can make those decisions yourself. Again, Rule #1 must apply throughout each decision.

Rule #3: Sometimes ignore Rule #2. With Rule #2 steering you, there isn’t a chance that you will come last in your league. You’re not taking massive risks and you’re not being boxed into awkward decisions. But, if you’re trying to win the league, you’re not making those amazing transfers that are necessary. For instance, last season Jermain Defoe bolted out of the blue to hammer five past Wigan as Totenham won 9-1. It’s only the third time someone has scored five in a match and only the second time a team has scored nine in Premier League history. Someone in my league put Defoe on their team a week before that match. It took me 3 months to catch up with the difference that it made – and because I was sensible, I didn’t put him on when I considered it. My sensibility, ultimately, matched the risk-taker but had I made that one risky move, I would have won the league by a mile. So bear that in mind.

Rule #4: Keep an eye on your rivals. If you can see their team, make sure you watch it closely. If you can’t, you can often figure out the squad by how many points they get each week. Why is it important? Well, put it this way. If you’re winning the league by a point and have exactly the same team as them, you will finish top. If you’re losing the league by a point and have the same team, you will finish last. I can’t tell you whether to make a risky change or avoid making their risky change – that’s for you to decide – but if you contemplate it then that’s good enough for me.

Ultimately, these rules can get annoying and will sometimes be wrong – but if you bear them in mind when you make each decision, they will more often than not steer you in the right direction. And there is one final rule that I, myself, must definitely pay attention to this year:

Rule #5: Your perception of players is warped. So such-and-such had a good season last year? Doesn’t mean they will this year. Oh, I really like this player! Well, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re a good choice. Shevchenko was undoubtedly one of the best players in the world when he moved to Chelsea. Liverpool was an excellent team before Alonso left them to crumble. Your favourite team is Blackpool? Well I wouldn’t count on them winning the league. Gareth Bale is a fairly average midfielder? Well if Fantasy Football lists him as a defender then he’ll get points for clean sheets and assists – so your perception is warped in that sense. Ultimately a player’s value is affected by many things. Drogba will be playing international football in Africa and will be playing with three other attackers, so whilst you can’t attack his quality, you can attack his value.

And, in the end, value is what it’s all about.