Everything changes with O’Neill’s exit. Not because of the impact of the resignation itself but because of the circumstances that led to it and the indications as to what might be coming for Villa et al.
Firstly, a brief word on that. Rumours throughout the internet suggest that the two key reasons that the successful Aston Villa manager left were the inevitable sales of James Milner and Ashley Young. It is looking ever more likely that Milner will head to Manchester City and Ashley Young will head to Tottenham Hotspur. If that’s not enough, in terms of transfer rumours, it has been reported here that the new Villa boss will be asked to get rid of a number of players including Luke Young, Sidwell, shorey, Reo-Coker et al. And the new manager (hinting, again, as to why Martin O’Neill left), is not allowed to spend any of the money. And, allegedly, Friedel is also heading for the door.
Alongside the demise of Aston Villa’s reputation in the UK, this situation makes some changes to fantasy footballers’ thoughts. If A Young and Milner leave before Saturday, the other midfielders (Downing, Petrov etc) will be worth more than their listed values. Though they won’t get as many goals, no doubt (and thus Carew/Agbonlahor may be worth less) the transfers will guarantee the pair a place in the starting line-up.
And, added to that, the movement of the two star players will dramatically affect the teams that they arrive at. Man City already has an abundance of midfielders, as does Tottenham, and this will make it even more difficult to predict a line-up. Nonetheless, here I go.
Tottenham
GK: Gomes will play. He’s the second most chosen goalkeeper on the Telegraph and the most selected on Premierleague.com and it’s because of the combination of playing for a team that will keep clean sheets, being a goalkeeper that will play every match and, to be honest, being cheaper than Cech and Van der Sar. Since you’re probably interested, Reina is the goalkeeper that sits top on the Telegraph.
DEF: A number of great defenders, Hutton, Dawson, Corluka, Assou-Ekotto, Bale, King, Bassong, Naughton, Walker, Kaboul etc. Dawson and Corluka will play every match that’s given to them. Though others disagree, I think that Hutton and Assou-Ekotto could play with them. Gareth Bale will probably play in midfield, where he does an excellent job. For that reason, he is (and I don’t think I’m overstating) literally the most valuable defender in fantasy football. If your game thinks that he’s a defender, put him on. He will get goals. He will get assists. He will still get the clean sheet bonuses that Tottenham pick up (and there’ll be a few). He’s the top choice on two fantasy football games that I have seen and he could well be the top defensive scorer of the year.
MID: Though that does mean that there’s a place missing in midfield. Lennon and Jenas are still fighting (and Lennon is still winning) for the right wing slot. Bale generally takes the left and that means that Bentley, Parrett, O’Hara, Rose, Sandro, Modric, Taarabt, Palacios, Huddlestone and Kranjcar are fighting for central midfielder. So I’m probably not exaggerating when I suggest that Ashley Young’s addition would make it a bit awkward. Again, my guess isn’t necessarily right, but I would personally place Kranjcar and Young in the two slots. It may also mean that Bale does in fact play in defence with Modric taking a midfield place.
ST: Defoe is the fourth most chosen attacker and the fifth/third/sixth most expensive. He’ll play and score frequently and deserves those rankings. He’s not the biggest bargain (though premierleague.com undervalue him) but he’ll be consistent. The other three main attackers, Crouch, Pavlyuchenko and Keane, are going to be seeking that other place. In reality, there will not be one player who consistently fills the slot. A number of Tottenham fans have noted that Keane is a bargain, and I would agree – he is cheaper than the others in every version of FF. On the other hand, I wouldn’t suggest getting any of them (see Rule 2), and would instead suggest looking to another major team.
Manchester City
GK: The first really tough battle. Both Hart and Given are first rate goalkeepers. Given is the 4th most selected and has a low price tag. Hart has an even lower price tag – so if one starts every match, they’re possibly the best bargain for a goalkeeper in the league. And, with Arsenal really pushing to sign Given by the end of the transfer window, it could well be a possibility. This would present a dilemma, though: Hart would be extremely cheap but the cheap Given would now be playing for Arsenal. Either would be worth it – but if Given doesn’t go, it may be a pointless dead-end. And, of course, the transfer window closes after the season starts, so the judgement has to be made in advance. Here’s my suggestion: if Given moves before Saturday, buy one of the two; if Given doesn’t, don’t.
DEF: Apparently some guy called Kolarov has signed. I haven’t seen him in action, to the best of my memory, but he’s causing a stir at Man City and will probably play. Lescott, as always, will dominate any team sheet he sits on and Toure will probably join him. Kolarov, being a left-back, will be backed up by Wayne Bridge and the latter will make it hard for him. Zabaleta and Richards will fight for the right-back position with Boateng also fighting Toure and Lescott in central defence. Since I’m biased against Zabaleta (for no real reason, except maybe price), I would place Richards-Toure-Lescott-Kolarov as the likely line-up, though there are great back-up players for any of those positions.
MID: With many key attackers able to play in midfield, or up front, we’ll assume that three midfielders will start. Ireland, Barry, Silva, Vieira, Wright-Philips and the new Toure are all excellent selections. Toure has been making a stir of the last month and will probably start. He’s earning £200,000 per week and won man-of-the-match this weekend, so he’s a good shout. Barry has been sitting comfortably and knocking in a few goals so will probably make the midfield too. Silva is likely to start ahead of Ireland, Vieira or SWP, but there is (as mentioned previously) one big problem. James Milner is likely to join. He’s not a superhero, of course, but he is likely to start most matches, relegating another midfielder. Ireland is likely to leave if Milner arrives, though, and it’s worth noting that point. Looking at FF prices, I would suggest that Toure is a bargain and Barry might be worth it but that the others are too expensive considering the inherent risk.
ST: Adebayor, Tevez, Bellamy and Santa Cruz. Four players that could easily be the number one attacker of a team like Man City. The likelihood is that Adebayor and Tevez will play most matches, if the former stays. Bellamy is desperate to go, especially with the knowledge that he may well be sitting on the bench or playing in midfield. Santa Cruz, despite his excellence, will struggle to get matches this year and unfortunately deserves his low price. He has been linked to Tottenham but I don’t think that he’ll be heading there when City has the money to dictate destination and wants to beat Spurs this year. The same is true of Micah Richards, who has been linked with Redknapp’s team. But if Adebayor or Bellamy go, values will again be affected. As things stand, none of them are worth their bloated price tags, except possibly Adebayor (though he won’t if he moves to a worse team). If Adebayor goes to Juventus, though, you’ll be wasting your money – and we can’t know until the end of the transfer window for sure. If he does go, buy Bellamy.
Aston Villa
GK: With the news that Friedel may be leaving, there could be problems for Villa. Their back-up goalkeeper is very cheap but isn’t up to the job. If Arsenal get Given, Almunia may be able to replace Friedel but otherwise I can’t see the latter persuading his owners to let him leave. As things stand, though, it’s too shaky to give a firm answer on.
DEF: Luke Young, Cuellar, Warnock, Collins and Dunne are the five key players (with Young the extraneous one of those four), though Clark, Davies, Beye, Shorey etc. are good enough to join that defence at any given time. Any starting player is worth their cost, assuming that there is a solid goalkeeper behind them. If not, they’re virtually worthless. So it’s up to you.
MID: Ashley Young could be leaving. James Milner could be leaving. Stephen Ireland could be coming in. Downing and Petrov, then, are the only two certainties and both are cheaper than they should be. Players like Sidwell, Reo-Coker, Albrighton, etc will fill gaps moreso than claim a specific position but with extremely low costs, they would be worth adding if they started to play. Reo-Coker is half the value of Young and Milner on one site and would bring the cost of the squad down significantly.
ST: Carew and Agbonlahor are favourites, as always. They’re not cheap, but with Carew at a similar cost to Crouch, I’d consider him. Agbonlahor is much cheaper than Tevez, too, and would be worth it if he had a good midfield behind him. If there’s no Milner or Young, there might be no quality feeding the attackers goals – on the other hand, Downing and Petrov may be turned into the perfect providers, giving the strikers goals that would usually be poached by midfield. It’s hard to say, and another of the unavoidably risky decisions.
Ultimately, the three teams could field five strong teams between them, with some of the most selected players in fantasy football at affordable prices. We’ll probably see one of them make a Champions League place, too, but it’s hard to say what the teams will look like by the end of the season. Anyway, it’s late, so if you’ll excuse me I’m off to research Kolarov on youtube.
